2026-10-10 11:42

What are commercial property yields in Germany in 2026?

According to BNP Paribas Real Estate, prime net initial yields on German commercial property in the third quarter of 2026 ranged from 3.94% for high-street retail buildings in the largest cities to 6.40% for DIY stores. Offices yielded 4.56%, logistics 4.70%, and supermarkets and discounters 5.00%. Since the end of 2025, yields have risen in every segment, by 0.1–0.6 percentage points.

Costlier financing has pushed yields up in every segment

Exhibit 1. Supermarkets yield 5.00% — more than offices and logistics, but less than shopping centres

Prime assets	End of 2025	Q3 2026	Change, bp
High-street retail buildings, average of the 7 A-cities	3.81%	3.94%	+13
Offices, average of the 7 A-cities	4.36%	4.56%	+20
Logistics	4.50%	4.70%	+20
Retail parks with a food anchor (Fachmarktzentren)	4.65%	4.75%	+10
Supermarkets and discounters	4.90%	5.00%	+10
Shopping centres	5.80%	6.10%	+30
DIY stores	5.80%	6.40%	+60

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, reports for Q4 2025 and Q3 2026. The A-cities are Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart.

BNP Paribas Real Estate attributes the rise in yields to more expensive financing. In the third quarter of 2026 the yield on ten-year German government bonds averaged 3.25%, 0.24 percentage points more than in the previous quarter. Within the quarter itself, prime yields rose by 0.1–0.2 percentage points in most segments, and for retail property the broker does not rule out a further rise by the end of the year.

The prime benchmark is a floor, not an average

These are the yields of the best properties in the best locations, so lesser assets sell at higher yields. For offices and high-street retail buildings, BNP gives the average of the seven largest cities: for retail buildings, the range runs from 3.50% in Munich to 4.10% in Cologne and Stuttgart. Brokers calculate differently: CBRE puts prime food stores at 4.6% and retail parks at 4.9% — the reverse order to BNP's. Yields can therefore be compared only on one broker's data and at one date.

For an investor, the spread over bonds matters more than the level

With ten-year bonds yielding 3.55% (Deutsche Bundesbank, 7 October 2026), prime supermarkets yielded 1.45 percentage points more, offices about 1.0 more and high-street retail buildings only 0.4 more (our calculation). These are market benchmarks, calculated by the broker's method and before taxes on income — not what a particular investor earns. Your own calculation, with conservative cost assumptions and acquisition costs included, can come out markedly lower. In the example in our series, a store marketed at 5.0% earns about 3.9% (see Part 10 of the series German Prime Retail).

Fewer deals are being done, above all in retail property

Retail property lost a quarter of its volume: in the first three quarters of 2026, €3.1 billion was invested in it against €4.1 billion a year earlier. Food stores and large-format specialist stores nevertheless attracted more than 45% of that investment. Across German commercial property excluding residential, €17.1 billion was invested over the same period — 2% less than a year earlier — and about €4.9 billion in the third quarter, 21% less. The share of foreign buyers rose to 48.9% across commercial property as a whole, but in retail it fell to 30.6% from 50.1% (BNP Paribas Real Estate).

Implications for investors

1. Compare yields only within one source. Brokers calculate differently — CBRE and BNP rank food stores and retail parks in reverse order — so only one broker's data at one date are comparable.

2. Judge the spread over bonds, not the level of the yield. With ten-year bonds yielding 3.55%, prime supermarkets yielded 1.45 percentage points more, and high-street retail buildings only 0.4 more.

3. Convert the market benchmark into your own yield. After costs and acquisition costs it can come out markedly lower: in the example in our series, a store marketed at 5.0% earns about 3.9%.

What to check:
• Clarify which yield is meant: prime, the average of actual deals or the one advertised by the seller.
• Compare figures from one broker at one date.
• Calculate the spread over government bond yields on the date of the deal.
• Work out what yield remains after non-recoverable costs and acquisition costs.

Sources: BNP Paribas Real Estate: German investment market reports for Q4 2025 and for Q2 and Q3 2026, German retail investment market reports for Q4 2025 and Q3 2026; CBRE, retail investment, Q3 2026 (as reported by konii.de, 6 October 2026); Deutsche Bundesbank, yield curve, 7 October 2026; Gordon Real Estate Group calculations; the series German Prime Retail, Part 10.

Photo: Jan-Philipp Thiele / Unsplash

This page is general information and not investment, legal or tax advice.

Ilya Gordon